Has AU shot itself in the foot?

Yesterday, Comoran soldiers backed by the African Union troops seized the island of Anjouan, part of the coup-prone archipelago of the Comoros. Anjouan, a small island of about 300,000, had been taken over by a rebel leader, Mohamed Bacar, in 2001. After flawed elections last year, Bacar clung to power against the wishes of the people.

Many African countries, Kenya included, are grappling wit the effects of dictatorship and flawed elections. From Algeria to Egypt, from Sudan to Swaziland, there are countries where grey-haired men hang onto the last threads of their grey suits paid for by the blood of the people they ruthlessly rule. Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe, Libya's Muammar Gaddafi, Egypt's Hosni Mubarak, Togo's Faure Gnassingbe (the younger version of Gnassingbe Eyadema, his departed father) and Uganda's Yoweri Museveni, recently egged on by Gaddafi, are good examples.

This week, the AU will watch 'helplessly' as Mugabe rigs himself back to power after swearing on his people's rumbling stomachs that the opposition "will never take power as long as he lives". Whether that's an invitation to something nasty, I cannot tell.

Most of the AU troops that backed the Comoran soldiers were from Sudan, no less. Only South Africa's Thabo Mbeki opposed the use f AU troops to topple Bacar. While dialogue of the sort Mbeki advocated has resulted in the endorsement of dictators and losers, it is commendable for its consistency. They did it in Kenya when the general election was stolen, sending Ghana's John Kufuor to mediate between Kibaki and Raila, and doing nothing about it when Kibaki's hardliners sent him home "after a cup of tea". Only the efforts by Kofi Annan, backed by the UN and the wider international community, forced Kibaki to see the sense of taking a soft landing on his way home. Today's stories, however, show Kibaki has a short memory; he does not seem to recall the details of the 50-50 power sharing arrangement he signed in the presence of Annan and Tanzania's Jakaya Kikwete, now chair of AU. Hopefully this time, it will take less than the widespread violence that brought him to the negotiations.

I do not recall any time the AU has used its troops for a mission such as they did in Comoros yesterday. The best the organisation does in times of election theft and coups de tat is to wring its hands and watch in amazement. Now that it has shown its muscular hand, let's hope it will use it consistently, beginning with Zimbabwe this week, if necessary.

How sex governs the US governors

About a week after New York governor Eliot Spitzer resigned over a sex scandal, the story refuses to go away. The spinoffs have led us back to Clinton (was Hillary afraid a comment would remind American voters of her decision to stick with Clinton to keep her ambition burning?). Now we are back to the McGreeveys of neighboring New Jersey. Jim McGreevey, the former NJ governor, was forced to resign in November 2004 after admitting an extramarital affair with a male employee. He is the first and, so far, the only openly gay American state governor, according to a Wikipedia entry on his profile. According to the male aide, the trysts were (hold your breath) threesomes with McGreevey's wife!

I hope you did not faint. Have a moral day.

Spoiling the party, BBC style

Just when we thought we were out of the woods, a huge animal emerged from the undergrowth, red in tooth and claw, with a roar. 'State sanctioned Kenyan clashes'. A closer look showed that the animal was familiar, the BBC itself.

The Kenyan parliament is reopening on Thursday. A committee established under the Annan deal has been set up to investigate the clashes. Previously, there have been allegations mainly from the govt side, that ODM planned and sponsored violence after the disputed Dec 27 election. They even went as far as threatening to take ODM officials to the Hague, forgetting that the ICC is used only when a country's justice system is irretrievably broken down or too biased to be trusted. It was instructive that the very same fellas screaming Hague had been shouting that ODM was free to go to court to contest the election results. Inadvertently, the govt was admitting something about its courts.

Back to the Beeb, the militia that is mentioned in the story actually had the audacity to stage a demonstration in Nairobi today. Either the police were aware that such a large group (hundreds actually) was going to stage a demo and allowed them to, or they were too incompetent to get the intelligence report.

I wonder which is worse.

Celebrating the deal

Kisumu, the lakeside town that suffered immensely in the post-election violence, erupted in celebrations when the news reached them that a deal was in the offing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYLIW5wIfaU

Signing the deal:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-m119v86_bo&feature=user

We have a deal!

It is hard to describe the mood in the country at the moment. Not even the biggest granary in my village can contain the overwhelming sigh of relief Kenyans breathed when Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga have signed a deal in which they will share power.

While the deal sounds good on the face of it, the challenge remains in getting it to pass thru Parliament. There is still a lot of suspicion, anger and mutual distrust among MPs. At the same time, while the rest of the country was celebrating, I doubt that those who lost their loved ones, those who are displaced and those who lost everything managed any smiles. At the same time, police teargassed Nairobi residents who were apparently shouting ODM! ODM! whilecelebrating the news that a deal would be signed. It tells you that even if you tame a snake, it can still bite you.

The deal is as follows:
1
ACTING TOGETHER FOR KENYA
AGREEMENT ON THE PRINCIPLES OF PARTNERSHIP OF THE COALITION
GOVERNMENT
Preamble:
The crisis triggered by the 2007 disputed presidential elections has brought to the surface
deep-seated and long-standing divisions within Kenyan society. If left unaddressed, these
divisions threaten the very existence of Kenya as a unified country. The Kenyan people are
now looking to their leaders to ensure that their country will not be lost.
Given the current situation, neither side can realistically govern the country without the
other. There must be real power-sharing to move the country forward and begin the healing
and reconciliation process.
With this agreement, we are stepping forwarding together, as political leaders, to overcome
the current crisis and to set the country on a new path. As partners in a coalition
government, we commit ourselves to work together in good faith as true partners, through
constant consultation and willingness to compromise.
This agreement is designed to create an environment conducive to such a partnership and to
build mutual trust and confidence. It is not about creating positions that reward individuals.
It seeks to enable Kenya’s political leaders to look beyond partisan considerations with a
view to promoting the greater interests of the nation as a whole. It provides the means to
implement a coherent and far-reaching reform agenda, to address the fundamental root
causes of recurrent conflict, and to create a better, more secure, more prosperous Kenya for
all.
To resolve the political crisis, and in the spirit of coalition and partnership, we have agreed to
enact the National Accord and Reconciliation Act 2008, whose provisions have been agreed
upon in their entirety by the parties hereto and a draft copy thereof is appended hereto.
Its key points are:
• There will be a Prime Minister of the Government of Kenya, with authority to
coordinate and supervise the execution of the functions and affairs of the Government
of Kenya.
• The Prime Minister will be an elected member of the National Assembly and the
parliamentary leader of the largest party in the National Assembly, or of a coalition, if
the largest party does not command a majority.
• Each member of the coalition shall nominate one person from the National Assembly to
be appointed a Deputy Prime Minister.
• The Cabinet will consist of the President, the Vice-President, the Prime Minister, the
two Deputy Prime Ministers and the other Ministers. The removal of any Minister of
the coalition will be subject to consultation and concurrence in writing by the leaders.
2
• The Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Ministers can only be removed if the National
Assembly passes a motion of no confidence with a majority vote.
• The composition of the coalition government will at all times take into account the
principle of portfolio balance and will reflect their relative parliamentary strength.
• The coalition will be dissolved if the Tenth Parliament is dissolved; or if the parties
agree in writing; or if one coalition partner withdraws from the coalition.
• The National Accord and Reconciliation Act shall be entrenched in the Constitution.
Having agreed on the critical issues above, we will now take this process to Parliament. It will
be convened at the earliest moment to enact these agreements. This will be in the form of an
Act of Parliament and the necessary amendment to the Constitution.
We believe by these steps we can together in the spirit of partnership bring peace and
prosperity back to the people of Kenya who so richly deserve it.
Agreed this date 28 February 2008
________________________ ________________________
Hon. Raila Odinga H.E. President Mwai Kibaki
Orange Democratic Movement Government/Party of National Unity
Witnessed By:
_________________________ _________________________
H.E. Kofi A. Annan H.E. President Jakaya Kikwete
Chairman of the Panel President of the United Republic of
of Eminent African Personalities Tanzania
and Chairman of the African Union

Mayor Potiapata hosts tragicomical talks

In Nairobi it is almost criminal to wear a smile in the streets. How when thousands are homeless, hundreds have been killed and peace nowhere to be found? So when I heard that the city mayor is to be picked by lots, I chuckled very quietly, for it reminded me of my village.

Every Sunday, there was a man dressed in strange colours who would shuffle cards. You put in a little money and he would shuffle them vigorously as your eyes tried to follow the card you wanted. If you predicted correctly which card was where, you won your money back. He was called Potiapata, which is a corruption of 'potea/pata', Kiswahili for win/lose. If Nairobi gets a mayor using this method, forgive me if I call him Mr Potiapata for the sake of my village memories.

Not so far away from City Hall, another game is going on. This time they are shuffling cards holding the whole country. Dr Kofi Annan has been trying for the last two months to get it right. Just when our eyes were about to settle on the ace, one of the ministers on the government side upset the table. Unconfirmed reports say the minister (name and gender withheld), told him he had no business in Kenya since his son had been found selling crude oil from Iraq. As if that was not enough, the unnamed minister told off another top negotiator that a company he was involved with was mining diamonds in DRC "where the violence is worse than ours". The minister then walked out, swagging the rest of the body for all to see the display on the catwalk of arrogance.

It was on that note that the Annan team suspended the talks. Kenya, it would appear, is held hostage by the whims of this minister. Click here for a more sanitised version of that story. I wish we were talking about a loaf of bread. Unfortunately, it is about a whole country of about 37 million people.

Other unconfirmed reports say a relative of the minister's was recently deported back to Kenya. I have no idea if that is true.

Condi, welcome to Kenya!

I hope you are here to tell Kibaki to go home. Things will all be smooth that way, I think.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7245442.stm

Bush to send top envoy to Kenya

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
Ms Rice is travelling with Mr Bush on his tour of Africa
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is to go to Kenya amid efforts to end the violence that erupted after a disputed presidential election.

President George W Bush said Ms Rice would back the mediation efforts led by former
UN chief Kofi Annan.

She would press for an immediate halt to violence, justice for victims, and "a full return to democracy", he said.

At least 1,000 people have been killed and more than 600,000 displaced during Kenya's post-election unrest.

Mr Annan has been pushing for an agreement between Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki, who claimed victory in December's election, and opposition leader Raila Odinga, who has argued that the poll was rigged.

Ms Rice will be accompanying President Bush on his trip to the African states of Tanzania, Rwanda, Benin, Ghana and Liberia, which begins on Saturday.

"When we are on the continent, I have asked Condi Rice to travel to Kenya to support the work of the former secretary general and to deliver a message directly to Kenya's leaders," President Bush said.